The tourism industry is undergoing a period of far-reaching structural change. Technological developments – particularly artificial intelligence – new platform and distribution models, and the increasing integration of value chain stages that were previously separate are reshaping the roles of established market players. Service providers are expanding their direct sales channels, platforms are broadening their functions, tour operators are refining their production models, and technology providers are increasingly taking on tasks that were previously carried out within traditional tourism companies.
Against this backdrop, this study by Dr. Fried & Partner examines how value-creation structures in the tourism sector will change in the coming years. The focus is not on analysing individual technological trends, but on the overarching question of where value will be created in future, who will be responsible for it, and how the roles and interfaces between the sector’s stakeholders will shift.
The study is based on 15 analysed expert interviews with key decision-makers from various sectors of the travel and travel tech industries. Perspectives are represented from tour operators, airlines and other service providers, sales and online platforms, destination management and travel tech. The interviews were conducted in August and September 2026 using a semi-structured interview guide. The starting point was eleven hypotheses regarding possible structural changes in the tourism value chain, the implications of which were assessed by the experts and explored in greater depth during the interviews.
Management Summary
The aim of the study is to develop a comprehensive picture of future value creation in tourism from a range of perspectives. The focus is on five key areas of change:
- AI is transforming customer engagement: Inspiration, search and advice are increasingly shifting towards AI-powered interfaces. Visibility, product data and the ability to be processed by digital agents are becoming key distribution capabilities.
- Sales is shifting from a transactional approach to a consultative one: Standardised booking processes are becoming increasingly digitised, whilst human value-add remains relevant, particularly when it comes to inspiration, trust, specialisation and complex travel arrangements.
- Production is evolving into hybrid real-time orchestration: Pre-configured products and traditional shopping benefits remain relevant, but are increasingly being combined with real-time availability, flexible combinations and customisation.
- The linear value chain is becoming a network: Key players, organisers, platforms, distributors and technology providers are increasingly expanding into neighbouring stages of the value chain. Individual intermediaries are coming under pressure, whilst aggregation and orchestration functions remain important.
- Technology is taking over operational value creation: Production, pricing, content, service and distribution processes are increasingly being integrated into platforms and automated systems. This, in turn, raises the question of which capabilities companies must master themselves and which they will need to source from technology partners in future.
The study therefore deliberately does not outline a clear-cut future scenario or rank future winners and losers. The assessments of the individual experts differ in some cases significantly – particularly with regard to the speed and scale of individual changes. It is precisely these differences that form part of the findings. The aim is to highlight the key structural shifts, critically evaluate different development paths and, on this basis, identify strategic areas of action for stakeholders in the tourism industry.
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