Assessment of current situation improves again – expectations rise significantly
Munich & Berlin, 15 January 2026 – Dr. Fried & Partner and ITB Berlin publish the latest results of the Global Travel Buyer Index (GTBI) for the fourth quarter of 2025. The GTBI is an industry indicator for tourism purchasing and is based on a quarterly survey of international buyers from the ITB Buyers Circle. The index provides valuable insights into the current market situation and the expectations of tourism buyers and serves as an early indicator for the development of the travel market.
In December 2025, the index once again shows a slight improvement in the assessment of the current purchasing situation compared to the previous quarter. Expectations for the coming months are rising significantly.
Global Travel Buyer Index – December 2025 (provided by Dr. Fried & Partner and ITB Berlin)
Current market situation: Assessment of purchasing activities rises slightly again
54% of respondents report an increase in purchasing volume over the past six months compared to the previous year, 32% see no change, while 14% report a decline. There are also positive trends in the proportion of fixed purchases: 51% of participants report an increase, 38% report a consistent proportion of fixed purchases, and 12% report a decrease. According to 62% of respondents, contractual expenditure in purchasing has increased, while 33% report no change and 5% report a decline.
The Current Situation Index rises to 85 points (September 2025: 83 points ), confirming the trend from the previous quarter of a slightly improved assessment of the current market situation.
Future expectations: Expectations for the next six months rise significantly
Expectations for the coming six months are significantly more optimistic than in the last survey. 59% of respondents anticipate an increase in their purchasing volume, 36% expect no change and 5% anticipate a decline. According to 54% of respondents, the proportion of fixed purchases is likely to increase, while 38% expect it to remain unchanged. In terms of contractual expenditure, 63% expect an increase, 33% expect stable conditions and 4% expect a decrease.
The Future Expectation Index rises to 90 points, signalling a significantly improved outlook for the next six months (September 2025: 84 points).
Global Travel Buyer Index
The Global Travel Buyer Index (GTBI) rises to 87 points in December 2025, reaching its highest level since February. The results indicate a further stabilisation in tourism purchasing, with noticeably more positive expectations for the coming months.
The GTBI is updated quarterly and provides continuous market monitoring for tour operators, destinations and service providers.
About the sample
In December 2025, a total of 152 tourism buyers took part in the survey. The majority make purchases for the source markets Germany (28%), Europe (49%) and Asia (8%), while the remaining respondents make purchases for North America, South America, Africa, Oceania or for all source markets equally. The focus of procurement is particularly on hotels (87%), DMC services (64%), activities & events (51%) and transfers (51%).