The 2025 summer season presents the tourism industry with unexpected challenges. After a promising early-bird period, demand stagnated later on – despite high expectations and ambitious pricing strategies from many providers.
Tour operators, airlines, and hoteliers are now responding with short-term discounts of up to 40% to reduce available capacity. High-volume medium-haul destinations such as Turkey, Greece, and Egypt are particularly affected.
What represents a favourable opportunity for those who decide at short notice is creating a need for strategic discussion within the industry: How reliable are early-bird models when the market reacts with significantly cheaper offers later on?
In the Süddeutsche Zeitung, Dr. Markus Heller, Managing Partner at Dr. Fried & Partner, examines the structural implications of this development. His assessment: “Guests remember when last-minute bookings are cheaper. This changes booking behaviour in the long term.”
These statements touch on a sensitive point: In recent years, many market players have deliberately relied on early booking programs to achieve planning security, stable margins, and more targeted capacity management. This trend could now be jeopardized.
For providers, the question is whether and how the early booking behaviour, which has strengthened again in recent years, can be sustained – or whether we are facing a structural shift in demand behaviour, with consequences for quality and satisfaction across the entire tourism industry.
In German, read more about Dr. Markus Heller’s perspectives on current developments here.
We sincerely thank Ms. Salzburger of the Süddeutsche Zeitung for the insightful conversation.